The Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) has been developed at the MOBI Research Centre at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). It is is a scientifically sound approach to consult a broad stakeholder community representing the main societal actors in Europe on the identification, evaluation and prioritisation of future user needs, new transport concepts, implications and potential societal resistance and adoption. A number of workshops with the stakeholders contributes to the MAMCA, providing direct input in a democratic way for the whole process, including the construction of the scenarios, validation of objectives, weighting of stakeholder criteria as well as the final consensus building and selection of the best-ranking scenario.
MAMCA has seven steps (Macharis 2009): the process started with consolidating a large number of potential future solutions identified in the preliminary phase of the project into 4 scenarios that depict the future of the European transport system STEP #1.
Then, a stakeholder analysis mapped all relevant stakeholder groups and identified their objectives, (e.g. mitigation of air pollution) STEP #2.
The objectives were translated into simpler criteria (e.g. mitigation of air pollution = air quality) and each stakeholder group weighted the importance of these criteria. At the same time, an online weighting survey was launched and was filled in by 224 stakeholders representing private and public companies, research organisations as well as European national, regional and local associations and local, regional and national governments STEP #3.
Then, measurement methods for each criterion were identified with international experts STEP #4. Indicators were used to measure the performance of a scenario, i.e. how would a certain future scenario affect a criterion (e.g. air quality) compared to the baseline situation, as it is in the present. After that, international experts evaluated the scenarios based on their performance measured by the indicators or qualitative assessment (slight improvement, significant improvement, etc…) STEP #5. Therefore, the impact of each scenario on each criterion was assessed to see, as an example, how the scenarios affect mitigation of air pollution.
In the next STEP #6, the MAMCA software developed by VUB-MOBI produced a ranking of scenarios for each stakeholder group. These results were discussed with the stakeholders at a dedicated workshop where the outcome of the evaluation process was presented and discussed STEP #7. Since MAMCA does not produce an ultimate ranking of the scenarios, this workshop served as a consensus-building platform where all stakeholders came to a consensus on the scenario that best represents their objectives for the future of transport in the EU. This scenario then will be taken forward to the Vision and Action Plan.
Scenario building is the first step of the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA), the methodology used to conduct a broad stakeholder consultation to develop a vision and Action Plan for mobility in Europe in 2030.
Scenarios represent a range of possible developments in the future, and are obtained applying the “intuitive logics” method combined with scenario co-creation workshops. The scenarios have communicative, goal-setting and decision-support functions.
Each narrative scenario describes future trends and technological, organisational or policy-related solutions. Based on a survey of 33 stakeholders, we selected policy & legislative framework and lifestyle & user behaviour as pivotal uncertainties (trends that have the highest uncertainty and the highest impact) to steer the scenario building.
Four preliminary scenarios were defined and discussed with the stakeholders at the scenario building workshop, based on the stakeholders’ feedback:
1. Data World
Harmonisation of regulations and technology standards at the European level is limited. The activities of companies in the transport and mobility sector are less strictly regulated. Government support for innovation is limited, innovation mainly comes from private companies, which collect, own and manage transport data. People are becoming increasingly flexible with an accelerated pace of life. Individualisation leads to smaller household size and flexible employment.
This scenario mainly includes solutions that increase efficiency and profitability of private actors in transport and enable large private corporations to provide integrated mobility services.
2. Digital Nomads
There is a high level of standardisation of regulations and technology standards at the European level. The activities of companies in the transport and mobility sector are more strictly regulated. The boundaries between private life and work disappear as people become always online and available.
The solutions in this scenario enforce cooperation between private and public actors to reduce carbon emissions and increase efficiency. Full digitalisation and automatization of the transport system is supported by government regulation and funding. Integrated mobility services are strictly regulated to provide a balanced set of transport options to users.
3. Slow is beautiful
European policy focuses on enabling local initiatives rather than supranational standardisation. Innovation is less supported due to scarce financial resources. People more and more turn to eco-friendly local cooperative production of food and energy, urban gardens and peer-to-peer services. Bottom-up initiatives of local communities thrive with few legal limitations on local sharing and production initiatives.
The solutions in this scenario aim to restrict local road traffic and enable local initiatives to share mobility resources. The approach to digitalisation and automatization is more cautious.
4. Minimum Carbon
Due to the severe pressure of climate change governments want to change fundamentally the behaviour of their citizens and companies to steer them to reduce carbon emissions and move them away from fossil fuels. Burn-out from fast-paced work have turned people towards healthier and active life.
The solutions support strict regulation of carbon emissions both for freight and passenger transport. The focus is on reducing travel demand and provide accessibility to work and services within local self-sustaining neighbourhoods.